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MD sorry I got this wrong. I said 5800 deaths when I should have said 5800 new cases in 24 hrs.  Does this make a difference? I will check later when the news is on providing they mention Russia.

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Margie is right. I keep popping in to see how you all are. Thankyou all so much for your posts.   I'm afraid we are not very well the pair of us. This must be the 'Long Covid' that we hear a

I really wish that more people were afraid. For their own safety.    I don't think anyone who hasn't witnessed in reality a person down on their hands and knees gasping  with a chest full of

Am in total dismay at the human race. It's becoming more like Mad Max at the moment.        This me me society we have created cares only about themselves: I'm alright Jack, the rest of you can f

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38 minutes ago, Stuart.C said:

Size of Nottinghamshire is 2160km sq.

Size of South Australia is 983482km sq., roughly 455 times larger, so the risk of contact between individuals is far less.

Sorry but your comment is a little simplistic. 1.33 million or 77 % of South Australians live in Greater Adelaide which covers an area of 3257 square kilometres the average population density is 400 per sq km with pockets to the south and east of the CBD as high as 3000 per sq km

There is bugger all people or anything else in most of South Australia. 80% of the state is classed as outback some 800,000 sq km

Nottinghamshire has an average population density of 535 per sq km

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Oztalgian

 

You statement mentions Adelaide being 3000sq km, similar to Nottinghamshire,  BUT surrounded  800,000sq km of nothing

The whole of the U.K is only 250,000sq km with 68m people in it.

 

Nottingham in is the East Midlands 4.8million and part of the Midlands as a whole 10.7m which is surrounded by millions of other people in adjacent Counties.

People move freely between all the surrounding counties and cities.

 

I'll repeat my original statement,, Direct comparisons between Countries is not easily possible.

 

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Using bare numbers is also too simplistic for accurate analysis of policy efficacy.

 

"There is bugger all people or anything else in most of South Australia".  This is true.

 

In Australia distances are huge compared to the UK (and indeed most of Europe).  Adelaide appears to be nowhere near any other large conurbation It seems reasonable therefore to assume isolation and containment was/is a lot easier to achieve.

 

In the south of England alone almost 200 million people a year fly into and out of the UK,  nearly 10 times the entire population of Australia so I would surmise control of that lot is a tad more of a problem compared to Adelaide.

 

We really do have to be careful when comparing apples with oranges.

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Brew, I am using the numbers which are broadly equivalent, only to highlight the efficacy of differences in responses by governments here in Australia versus the UK and I don't think I am wrong in saying that the population of the UK has been poorly served by those that govern them.

As an example Australia and New Zealand closed their borders firstly to China, then Italy and then to all except returning citizens or residents and any of those returning are put into quarantine. The UK continues to let anyone in without any checks. The outcome is obvious in the number of infections and deaths. We are both islands ours is, granted, a lot bigger but an island non the less.

What numbers would you use to measure the efficacy of the UK's response

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Oz the point of my post was mainly to demonstrate that making judgements of complex situations purely by numbers can lead, or mislead, to inaccurate conclusions. Not even our opposition parties are drawing parallels based solely on the addition of spurious numbers.

 

The UK government (of both flavours), thought we were prepared for an eventuality such as Covid  through  a contingency plan (the 2006 influenza pandemic plan). We had the infrastructure and necessary supplies with a scheme formulated  by the NHS - It didn't work.

I don't blame Labour nor do I blame Tories for the fact it has not worked as expected. It was a plan made for an unknown by people with no experience or knowledge of just what a pandemic means. The 1918 flu, SARS, H1N1 and Ebola were all different in many ways.

Globally no government in the world was fully prepared.

 

Whether we have been poorly served is moot but I cannot recall any body of opinion, scientific, political or public crying out for action before we went to lock down.

There were no demands to close shops, no demands to stay indoors, no demands for a ban on unnecessary travel...

I should also point out we declared lockdown on the same day as Australia and 2 days before New Zealand.

 

The numbers of people coming to the UK at the moment is tiny. The Sun screams 15000 a day are flooding in, why are they allowed and why aren't they tested. The BBC on the other hand reports that Heathrow is one of the worlds major hubs and the majority of passengers arriving are in transit. People on their way elsewhere or Brits coming home and that flights have dropped from 600 to less than 60 a day. I know which I give more credence to. The majority of planes we see are cargo.

 

I posted awhile back that hindsight and 20:20 vision would generate criticism of what should have been done and wasn't. It's coming to pass somewhat sooner than I predicted.

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Yes Brew hindsight is a wonderful thing, however, at some point in time there should surely be an inquiry into why the UK has been hit harder than many other countries in Europe.

In closing look at the data on this site and ask the obvious questions

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Particularly the data related to Germany, what did they do differently?

 

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26 minutes ago, Oztalgian said:

Yes Brew hindsight is a wonderful thing, however, at some point in time there should surely be an inquiry into why the UK has been hit harder than many other countries in Europe.

The reality may well turn out to be the different ways different countries record the deaths. Sadly, the real global death toll from this nasty little bug could be much higher than our current records show, especially in countries where the bureaucracy needed to accurately identify and record the deaths is patchy at best, and, at worst, politically suppressed.

Rode round the Jubilee campus in wollaton yesterday morning. Several of the blocks - Aerospace Technology, Innovation Centre,  GSK Carbon Neutral Laboratories and Romax - All of them working to find solutions to the situation.

Keep taking care

Phil

 

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I would say that numbers aren't really that important, deaths are and so are the unfortunates who have contracted this virus. It seems that each country is grumbling about what has been done and what has not. They are all at fault for not even knowing what to do. They are all working blind and are being criticized for not doing the right thing. I sometimes wonder if a different government might have done things differently. But the one I criticize is Trump, it seems to me that he's only interested in his re election and golf. Does he really think he's immune?

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One good thing is that governments should  be better prepared for the next pandemic - there will be no excuse then for not having everything in place.

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That’s what we thought after the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, and indeed planning took place, PPE was stockpiled, and contingencies were “war-gamed”, including Exercise Cygnus as recently as 2016/7

 

Then, someone looked at how much that all costs, and decided to cut it all back to the bare bones and not renew out of date items.

 

So, once this pandemic is over, and unless we as a country are willing to invest the millions it will cost, expect that to be repeated.

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6 hours ago, Brew said:

The UK government (of both flavours), thought we were prepared for an eventuality such as Covid  through  a contingency plan (the 2006 influenza pandemic plan). 

I don't blame Labour nor do I blame Tories for the fact it has not worked as expected. It was a plan made for an unknown by people with no experience or knowledge of just what a pandemic means. 

 

Whether we have been poorly served is moot but I cannot recall any body of opinion, scientific, political or public crying out for action before we went to lock down.

There were no demands to close shops, no demands to stay indoors, no demands for a ban on unnecessary travel...

 

Exactly. Social Media (I hate the term but I'll use it) is full of armchair experts who are telling us how the authorities got it wrong. If everyone had followed the advice now coming from those experts, none of this would have happened. They know - and apparently always knew - what no-one else could see either then or now. 

 

Never in the field of human conflict have so many been wise after the event.

 

 

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nonnaB, this virus is said to exclusively attack humans. As Trump appears to ignore all advice regarding all precautionary measures and protective gear, that might indicate that he is not of this planet.

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Watch your TV news tonight. We’ve got East Midlands TV News filming in the village at the moment. We must have more than 80 scarecrows now and the maypole dancers have just been completed but not yet on our Facebook page. Some people have gone to a lot of trouble but we can’t have any visitors in the flesh to view their efforts.

 

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I think East Midland’s News is generally after the national news at around 6.30pm. My wife said there were loads of ‘media’ types around with cameras but I guess it will probably last for all of thirty seconds! There’s already been a wreath laying ceremony at the aircrew memorial then we’ve got to raise a glass at 3pm from the safety of our gardens. The church bells are due to be rung at 7pm. They’ve not been rung for years so I hope they don’t drop off their mountings and flatten the ringers!

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On 5/7/2020 at 11:27 AM, Stuart.C said:

Size of South Australia is 983482km sq., roughly 455 times larger, so the risk of contact between individuals is far less.

 

But, Oz has already stated that 1.3 million live in Adelaide.  That is approx twice the number in Notts.  Yet deaths, even if all were in Adelaide, are only 4, c.f. 400+ in Notts.  Pretty conclusive I'd say.

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2 hours ago, MargieH said:

One good thing is that governments should  be better prepared for the next pandemic - there will be no excuse then for not having everything in place.

 

The problem is knowing what the next Pandemic will be and who it will affect the most, old, young etc.

Will it be respiratory and need ventillators / visors etc  or will it affect circulation / soft organs so Kidney machines might be needed or could it be a skin infection, who knows.

 

The only  guaranteed items needed would be Scrubs , masks and gloves and they all have a shelf life.

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7 hours ago, Oztalgian said:

Yes Brew hindsight is a wonderful thing, however, at some point in time there should surely be an inquiry into why the UK has been hit harder than many other countries in Europe.

In closing look at the data on this site and ask the obvious questions

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Particularly the data related to Germany, what did they do differently?

 

 

The link is little more than a bald tabulation and actually tells us very little. There are many more factors to consider, as OldPhil points out, different countries use different methodologies when collating the data. Italian authorities (the Civil Protection Agency) had said that the true death toll in the country may be 10 times higher due to the way the figures are codified. 

The Italians (CPA), reported region by region and did not necessarily use the same measures across the country - we do.

The German system is different again so again I say simply comparing numbers serves little purpose.

 

Germany seems on the face of it to have best response in the world but as with most things the devil is in the detail. Getting to the truth is not always straightforward.

German reaction was in fact much slower than the rest of Europe, they were more than a week late with going into lockdown so there must be other factors in play to account for their apparent low Covid mortality.

 

1 hour ago, DJ360 said:

 

But, Oz has already stated that 1.3 million live in Adelaide.  That is approx twice the number in Notts.  Yet deaths, even if all were in Adelaide, are only 4, c.f. 400+ in Notts.  Pretty conclusive I'd say.

 

Conclusive of what?  Adelaide has a population density of 400 per sq kilometer. The figure for Nottingham. is over 4000! person to person contact is bound to be higher.

 

As I keep saying figures alone don't tell the whole story and we really should not join the blame culture conspiracy theorists who simply seek to criticise and will no doubt demand compensation one day.

It will be  more useful to look at the situation holistically, look for positives and find the best solution.

 

 

 

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Had an interesting chat today with an ITU nurse (neighbour’s daughter) who’s been working with Covid-19 patients.

 

While much of what she has had to deal with is harrowing, losing both patients and colleagues, it seems that as I had all the symptoms of the virus back in March. I may be able to help with trials which take blood plasma and extract antibodies to transfuse into patients with CV19.

 

As long as they don’t take more than an armful...

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On 5/8/2020 at 1:24 PM, Brew said:

As I keep saying figures alone don't tell the whole story and we really should not join the blame culture conspiracy theorists who simply seek to criticise and will no doubt demand compensation one day.

 

Below is a breakdown of what Johnson and the Tories have done concerning the Coronavirus. They are responsible for a lot of people catching Covid-19 in the UK and dying.

December 31st China alerts WHO to new virus.

January 23rd Study reveals a third of China’s patients require intensive care.

January 24th Boris Johnson misses first Cobra meeting.

January 29th Boris Johnson misses second Cobra meeting.

January 31st The NHS declares first-ever ‘Level 4 critical incident’ Meanwhile, the government declines to join European scheme to source PPE.

February 5th Boris Johnson misses third Cobra meeting.

February 12th Boris Johnson misses fourth Cobra meeting. Exeter University published a study warning Coronavirus could infect 45 million people in the UK if left unchallenged.

February 13th Boris Johnson misses conference call with European leaders.

February 14th Boris Johnson goes away on holiday. Aides are told keeps Johnson’s briefing notes short or he will not read them.

February 18th Johnson misses fifth cobra meeting.

February 26th Boris Johnson announces ‘Herd Immunity’ strategy, announcing some people will lose loved ones. A government document is leaked, predicting half a million Brits could die in ‘worse case scenario.’

February 29th Boris Johnson retreats to his country manor. NHS warns of ‘PPE shortage nightmare’ Stockpiles have dwindled or expired after years of austerity cuts.

March 2nd Boris Johnson attends his first Cobra meeting, declining another opportunity to join the European PPE scheme. Government’s own scientists say over half a million Brit’s could die if virus left unrestrained. Johnson tells country “We are very, very well prepared.”

March 3rd Scientists urge Government to advise the public not to shake hands. Boris Johnson brags about shaking hands of Coronavirus patients.

March 4th Government stops providing daily updates on virus following a 70% spike in UK cases. They will later U-turn on this amid accusations they are withholding vital information.

March 5th Boris Johnson tells public to ‘wash their hands and business as usual’

March 7th Boris Johnson joins 82,000 people at Six Nations match.

March 9th After Ireland cancels St Patrick’s day parades, the government says there’s “No Rationale” for cancelling sporting events.

March 10th - 13th Cheltenham takes place, more than a quarter of a million people attend.

March 11th 3,000 Atletico Madrid fans fly to Liverpool.

March 12th Boris Johnson states banning events such as Cheltenham will have little effect. The Imperial College study finds the government’s plan is projected to kill half a million people.

March 13th The FA suspends the Premier League, citing an absence of Government guidance. Britain is invited to join a European scheme for joint purchase of ventilators and refuses. Boris Johnson lifts restrictions of those arriving from Coronavirus hot spots.

March 14th Government is still allowing mass gatherings, as Stereophonics play to 5,000 people in Cardiff.

March 16th Boris Johnson asks Britons not to go to pubs but allows them to stay open. During a conference call, Johnson jokes that push to build new ventilators should be called ‘Operation Last Gasp’

March 19th Hospital patients with Coronavirus are returned to care homes in a bid to free up hospital space. What follows is a boom of virus cases in care homes.

March 20th The Government states that the PPE shortage crisis is “Completely resolved” Less than two weeks later, the British Medical Association reports an acute shortage in PPE.

March 23rd UK goes into lockdown.

March 26th Boris Johnson is accused of putting ‘Brexit over Breathing’ by not joining EU ventilator scheme. The government then state they had not joined the scheme because they had ‘missed the email’

April 1st The Evening Standard publishes that just 0.17% of NHS staff have been tested for the virus.

April 3rd The UK death toll overtakes China.

April 5th 17.5 million Antibody tests, ordered by the government and described by Boris Johnson as a ‘game-changer’ are found to be a failure.

April 7th Boris Johnson is moved to intensive care with Coronavirus.

April 16th Flights bring 15,000 people a day into the UK - without virus testing.

April 17th Health Secretary Matt Hancock says “I would love to be able to wave a magic wand and have PPE fall from the sky.” The UK has now missed four opportunities to join the EU’s PPE scheme.

April 21st The Government fails to reach its target of face masks for the NHS, as it is revealed manufacturers offers of help were met with silence. Instead millions of pieces of PPE are being shipped from the UK to Europe.

April 23rd - 24th Government announces testing kits for 10 million key workers. Orders run out within minutes as only 5,000 are made available.

April 25th UK death toll from Coronavirus overtakes that of The Blitz.

April 30th Boris Johnson announces the UK has succeeded in avoiding a tragedy that had engulfed other parts of the world - At this point, The UK has the 3rd highest death toll in the world.

May 1st The Government announces it has reached its target of 100,000 tests - They haven’t conducted the tests, but posted the testing kits.

May 5th The UK death toll becomes the highest in Europe.

May 6th Boris Johnson announces the UK could start to lift lockdown restrictions by next week.

 

It really isn't a great record.  It's inexcusable.

 

Add in that now.. finally.. there is talk of air passengers being quarantined.  As far as I know this is currently proposed to be taken on trust ..  'Yes.. I promise to self isolate..'  FFS!!!!!

 

We still have thousands of people flying into the UK unchecked.  I'm sorry but my view is that whoever they are and wherever they come from they should be aware.  'Land in the UK and expect to be FORCIBLY QUARANTINED for a minimum of 14 days.  If you don't like that.  Stay away.'

 

For the last week or more we have been seeing a consistent  3-400 hospital deaths per day.  That figure is not falling.  Think about it.  It is pretty well established that it typically takes around 3 weeks for this virus to kill people.  We have been in a feeble and badly enforced 'lockdown' for 7 weeks. if the lockdown was half decent we'd not be seeing these deaths.

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On 5/8/2020 at 9:38 AM, Oztalgian said:

Brew, I am using the numbers which are broadly equivalent, only to highlight the efficacy of differences in responses by governments here in Australia versus the UK and I don't think I am wrong in saying that the population of the UK has been poorly served by those that govern them.

Thanks DJ360 Your post supports my view that the UK has been badly served by those who were charged with responding to this virus.

The recent announcement to have all arrivals self quarantine effective in a fortnight, Why not immediately. Yet again a case of too little too late.

I agree it is not all about the numbers but if that extra death is one of your family then I think many would agree and ask the question, "Have we done all we could?"

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The first 10 can hardly be blamed, even by the rabid socialist Thomas Scribbs who wrote the article, for causing Covid or people dying from the same'

 

They may not, with hindsight, have been the best course of action but decisions were made under advisement.

 

Johnson did NOT advocate the 'herd immunity' strategy and indeed was at pains to repudiate that it was ever government policy. It was one of many ideas mooted by various advisers, as such it was discussed, taken into consideration and ultimately rejected. The quote has been attributed to him by either ill informed or vindictive journalists.

Seizing on the phrase by the unscrupulous is a smoke screen, something to fuel the hard of thinking  mobs moral indignation, not even the Labour party have raised it.

 

Keeping notes short is standard business practice, that's why the conclusion or summary section of a report is on the first page.

 

We didn't need to join the EU sourcing PPE. We had/have a warehouse holding 500 million pounds worth of the stuff. A joint agreement with the EU may have led to us having to supply some of it abroad and wouldn't the naysayers have just loved that. The fact we had enough to send some to Europe as a gesture raised  enough furore without making it a formal agreement.

Contrary to popular opinion cotton masks and plastic aprons do not go out of date, nor do the paper coveralls.The shortage of PPE reported by the BMA was due not to lack of supplies but legal wrangling and slow delivery. 

 

The football, racing etc were a mistake but again only in hindsight, there was no outcry at the time and though alarm bells were probably ringing maybe they thought the public would not accept it -  I don't know.

 

Death toll and the Blitz is a superfluous statement, irrelevant, unnecessary and not in very good taste. Sounds like a Sun strapline.

 

If they send out 100,000 test kits by post what more do you want them to do? Perhaps we should lock up those who fail to return them.

 

The death toll is not the highest in Europe. Spain and Italy both have more. (9/5/20).

 

Detained by force? what are we North Korea? 

 

Until the government have perfect knowledge they follow best practice and advice and quite frankly I'm convinced there would those who moan and groan no matter what they do. 

 

I don't know where you obtain your figures from but the daily mortality is rate IS falling.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/    Daily deaths, half way down

 

There will be peaks and troughs but the overall graph is showing a reduction which is probably why they feel able to ease up on the lock down.

 

Had the lock down been stricter, there may have been a difference but that's something we can only speculate on.

 

 

 

 

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