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From my healthcare background I can tell you that this virus is far more dangerous than the flu virus. About 10 times more deadly. It really is nasty. 

 

My step son is currently on a flight to Moscow and then to St Petersburg, I have asked him to be careful. 

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According to the latest data Covid 19 has infected almost 10 million people, killed almost half a million and economically has brought the world to its knees.

The UK (Hong Kong) flu epidemic of 1968/69 and 70, which many of us lived through, is estimated to have killed somewhere between 1 and 4 million people worldwide. It too started in China and persists today as Influenza type A, a seasonal flu, and it killed 30,000 people in the UK yet we did not shut the economy down as we have done this time we just got on with life. During the Hong Kong flu epidemic in the UK sickness benefits claims for influenza peaked at 500,000 claims and around 800 deaths per week with an infection rate of 200 per 100,000 of the population. Between 2014 and 2019 average deaths from flu in the UK were 17,000 per annum.

The UK has had 310,000 confirmed cases of Covid 19 that has resulted in 43,500 deaths with a population of 66.65 million a 0.47% chance of being infected and a 0.065% chance of dying. In 1970 the UK population was 55.56 million and with 30,000 deaths a 0.053% chance of dying, Covid 19 therefore is more likely to kill you if you get infected, but if you take off the average yearly number of deaths from flu then the impact of Covid 19 is very little different to the Hong Kong flu of the late 60's and early 70's

In 2017 Australia had 1255 deaths from the flu and in 2019, 902 died from just under 313,000 cases. In 2020 Australia we have had only 7593 cases of Covid 19 and 104 deaths 

I don’t know about you but to me this begs the question why has this strain brought about economic chaos that it has and what has changed in our psyche that has caused governments to react the way they have particularly here in Australia given that it is far less than a normal flu year. In previous years the level of flu deaths has not raised concern yet this has? What is happening and why have we hit the panic button on this one?

Is it

  • Governments responding irrationally to media hype

  • Government thinking that it must do something

  • The impact or social media and misinformation

  • Part of an icreasing anti-China sentiment fuelled in part by Trump

  • Ultra-cautious medical and scientific advisors

  • The risk of litigation

I would be interested in your views

 

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It's still way too early to make direct comparisons.

 

Hong Kong Flu, as stated by the article was / is a seasonal flu.

Covid as yet has not run long enough to be determined as seasonal, it may keep killing at the same rate throughout the year so the total numbers could exceed H-K Flu.

 

The average numbers of deaths (from that article) from H-K flu in 68/69 were with very little intervention from Governments and others.

At that time they had no idea how bad it would spread.

The deaths from Covid are at a similar rate BUT with massive intervention and we knew how H-K had spread.

What would the death rate have been without intervention?

 

The World population now is far more mobile than it was then so any disease spread is going to far quicker.

 

My Son was in New Zealand in February for 2 weeks working, travelled back via Vietnam with a short stop (still working) over then onto Los Angeles, Toronto, then New York staying for 3 days (early March) then back home to Arizona.

5 days later he was laid up in bed with all the Covid symptoms but couldn't get a test as there were none in A.Z.

A few days after that my Daughter in Law had similar symptoms but managed to stay out of bed.

Both recovered from whatever it was.

 

Where did he catch whatever it was, how many people did he spread it to and how many people would have been doing similar journeys to that in the 60s/70s

 

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6 hours ago, Oztalgian said:

I would be interested in your views

 

6 hours ago, Oztalgian said:

The impact or social media and misinformation

 

I think that is the key to it all. The fact that everyone knows everything (accurate or false) as soon as it happens - or even before in some cases.

 

This is the first pandemic which has played out on the internet. That's one of the main reasons why people bought too many toilet rolls and pasta. Too much information to take in, too often, and immediately jumping to a gut-reaction conclusion. It the internet had existed for any of the earlier pandemics, I'm sure there would've been more hysteria.

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A14869-BD-AA0-E-4335-B09-D-BFF74-AF36292

 

this photo was taken the other evening , after the lifting of lockdown things are looking up. Overflow outside my sons restaurant . 

Forgot to add that on Fridays, saturdays and Sunday evenings the Lord Mayor has given permission to keep the road closed and to keep it a pedestrian way. This is helping the businesses there to recuperate. On that evening the main restaurant was full ( according to social distancing ) and so was the front courtyard.  We are in the old part of the village and they have been redoing all the roads and as you can see it's mainly cobbles. When they have finally finished it's going to look really nice . Opposite is a new gelateria and at  the far end of the archways is a restaurant that does weddings etc.  

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Nice looking gaff Nonna ! Wish I were there for a bowl of pasta.

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The restaurant is behind those that are eating. The archways have a few shops but at night time it's really nice.

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Even so it still looks a very nice area. There's something about eating alfresco on a summer's evening.

Me, I'm just fed up with this bloody lockdown. Now up to 104 days. Have a glass of vino Tinto for me Nonna.

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Looks great Nonna and the weather appears to be somewhat better than the night we ate there! 

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I too am envious Nonna .

 

It looks clean and civilised there and with the Mediterranean glass of wine culture that Blair erroneously thought he could encourage the yobs of the UK to adopt.

 

The UK has fast become a lost society. The end of lock down has demonstrated that the lower element of society is becoming the norm for selfishness and bad behaviour.

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12 hours ago, LizzieM said:

Looks great Nonna and the weather appears to be somewhat better than the night we ate there! 

 

Yes Lizzie that was a terrible night but quite usual for that time of year. Thinking about that night you had to park in the car park right at the other end of the road. If you had gone a little further forward you would have found a small square with parking. You wouldn't have got so cold and wet. The area there is unrecognizable now as they are redeveloping Paese Alto. It's looking very characteristic.

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Alpha, Italians without their glass of wine as an aperitif on a summers evening is unheard of. It is very relaxing and now that things seem to be on the up and up and they close the road at the weekend , it's Aperitif time . The view from there is lovely it looks over towards the mountains so the sun sets are beautiful. I'm not knocking it as I love U.K. but unfortunately  unless there's an area that has got a view it's sad that all you can do is drink and eat in close proximity to traffic and tall buildings. Still it's better than sitting at home and seeing four walls as a lot of us have been doing.

Good luck for your lifting lockdown but remember it's not over yet, be careful be safe.

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As an extra thought we are having a lot of English people coming to buy houses in this area.Wonder if they are fed up too.

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Here in South OZ we have had three new covid 19 cases after having none for around a month. The difference this time is that they have a source that is from 280 repatriated Aussies that returned from Mumbai on a "mercy" flight and have been put in mandatory quarantine with regular testing.

 

Victoria (Melbourne) is still struggling with new outbreaks and have locked down at suburb level in a bid to control the spread. Our borders with Victoria will remain closed beyond the promised reopening date due to the current situation.

 

Keep safe everyone, this is not over yet and I hope that the opening of pubs etc on Monday does not result in a spike of new cases.

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Sorry to hear that OZ. My cousins are in Melbourne so I'm worried about them as they've been through hell and back when the husband was very ill. ( not cv I must add)

Its going to be a very long time before this thing is over. New cases increase and levels out a while then it decreases and the cycle goes on. Yesterday we had 172 new cases with 23 deaths, today 117 new cases and 6 deaths. Yes it's going down but still far too many. Summer is upon us and it's human nature for everyone to get out in the sun for a tan and just to enjoy the mountains or the sea and country side. Not everyone is obeying the rules, but they don't realize that they may be infecting those who are being careful.

I feel for Kath in Arizona and hope she is ok. I know she's posted on FB and only hope that when she's home ,if she isn't already that her local area is free of CV.

Strange but I feel more sorrow for USA than I do for Italy, we are doing ok but still more care is needed.

Stay safe everyone.

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The problem in Leicester is that a lot of the ethnic families live in very close proximity. In the same room sometimes! Also there are a lot of people who don’t speak English and probably don’t understand the severity of the situation. 

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55 minutes ago, philmayfield said:

The problem in Leicester is that a lot of the ethnic families live in very close proximity. In the same room sometimes! Also there are a lot of people who don’t speak English and probably don’t understand the severity of the situation. 

Same as Nottingham then! 

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No doubt they’ll be coming along the Fosse to sample our curry houses. We could be the next town in lockdown. We’re a bit isolated here at the moment as the level crossing is closed during the working day for a week for road works, so a trip into Nottingham is an extra 10 mile diversion. The joys of Newark beckon, although that’s gained notoriety with a recent shooting at the Gypsy site on Tolney Lane. Just a ‘family’ argument I think.

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Leicester's lockdown has nowt to do wi CV19. They just want em to lock down forra  bit a peace an  quiet.

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Just heard this on news about Leicesters lockdown. I've been hearing bits about Leicester but hadn't paid much attention to it until today. Hope it doesn't spread.

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All tables a metre apart ready for customers who wish to eat Al Fresco

 

37-D7262-E-0837-4-F06-90-AA-00-C6425-FB5

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Nonna, wish I could be there x

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Lasagne and chips, hey Margie? Con vino Tinto de la casa !

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