Ukraine invasion...


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Just had a brilliant text.........my son Has left the Ukraine and is driving thru Poland...........I thank the good Lord...he had been in Ukraine since day one of the ''Invasion''              He

My Son......saying a 'Heart-breaking goodbye'' to two of his friends..somewhere in the Ukraine.........

Had Dinner with my son....who filled me in on a few of his activities in the Ukraine.....(.i'm sure not all though.).......so relieved to see him........      

We can't go far militarily as a single country because we don't have any troops or much kit... other than nukes.

 

We are limited on sanctions because our own governing party and our entire financial hub is up to its elbows in dirty Russian money.

 

Rees-Mogg had 60 million invested in Srbank via his 'Somerset Investments', and surprise surprise, disposed of that investment on 30th Jan.

 

It looks like Ukraine is lost to that Criminal's lunacy at least in the short term. It's not a NATO member so we can't respond directly. However.. if he breaches the borders of any NATO country, whatever his view of history, we have a serious decision to make as a part of the NATO alliance.

We can only hope that the Gangster Putin has gone too far for his Military and other surrounding characters, and  gets shown the door. Not looking likely.

It's comforting..NOT.. that we have such a competent and incorruptible Govt. to protect us.

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I Said my son's flight to the Ukraine was cancelled the other day...........unfortunately it was rescheduled and he flew in yesterday............

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Ben sorry to hear that I hope he is able to keep safe.

The Lunatics Have Taken Over the Asylum lets hope that ours responds to therapy!

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Hope he stays safe Ben.

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4 hours ago, benjamin1945 said:

I Said my son's flight to the Ukraine was cancelled the other day...........unfortunately it was rescheduled and he flew in yesterday............


Ben, thinking  about you and your son tonight.  Will he be there for long? 

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Since America proved (as many of us always thought), to be a paper tiger the world has grown much more dangerous.

 

Russia has invaded Ukraine on the flimsiest of pretexts, but nothing new there they did the same in Afghanistan when they tried to reinstall a pro-communist government, so why are we surprised? It may take some time, but eventually they want the territory they lost with the fall of the USSR.

 

Ukraine and the West are squealing about democracy, freedom and the right to self-determination, whilst at the same time Ukraine is waging a civil war with pro-Russian separatists in the  east Donbas region. A hypocritical mockery to which we seem to turn a blind eye. One thing is certain we are in for a period of lies, lies, damn lies and still more lies as various factions try to justify their actions.

 

Jolly Johnson thinks we will punish Russia with sanctions - not a hope in hell.  The west has been imposing sanctions since at least 2014, it didn't stop them invading Crimea.

 

Sanctions do have an effect of that there is no denying, even to the point they may  be counter-productive and a factor in the decision to invade! The largest country in the world and only eleventh in the GDP ranking? (UK is fifth), if you whip a dog long enough it will eventually turn and bite.

 

Russia, in many peoples opinion, is staking a claim to their place on the world stage by expanding their sphere of influence.

To that end Russia, like China, has invested huge amounts in Africa, whether that makes Russia and China partners or rivals time will tell, but I'd guess they are keeping a wary eye on each other.

--------------------

Taiwan is only a hundred miles from the coast of China, will China invade? I doubt it, it's well within Chinese territorial waters so there is probably is no need. Taiwan is an island and could be easily blockaded until they accept a settlement – who's to stop them?

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2 hours ago, Brew said:

Russia has invaded Ukraine on the flimsiest of pretexts, but nothing new there they did the same in Afghanistan when they tried to reinstall a pro-communist government, so why are we surprised? It may take some time, but eventually they want the territory they lost with the fall of the USSR.

 

But of course the USSR was not defeated by the West..it simply collapsed because that sort of authoritarian repression and bureaucratic failure is simply unsustainable over time.  They did 'well' to last as long as they did.

You might also want to recall that with the end of WW2 and with the exception of part of Germany, the  Allies withdrew from all territory they had liberated from Nazi domination, including France, West Germany etc... and allowed those nations to continue along a Democratic path.  Meanwhile  Russia, effectively occupied  the territories is had won back from the Nazis, and imposed its brutal authoritarian one party  system on them. There is a severe and brutal qualitative difference between the two 'spheres of influence'.

 

2 hours ago, Brew said:

Ukraine and the West are squealing about democracy, freedom and the right to self-determination, whilst at the same time Ukraine is waging a civil war with pro-Russian separatists in the  east Donbas region. A hypocritical mockery to which we seem to turn a blind eye. One thing is certain we are in for a period of lies, lies, damn lies and still more lies as various factions try to justify their actions.

 

Whoaahh!! Hang on Jim.. some massive assumptions there. Where do you get the idea that the 'Pro-Russian Separatists' are a genuine breakaway, as opposed to a fake insurgency propagated, encouraged and armed by Putin? Rather convenient that they seem to cluster around that particular bit of Ukraine..don't you think?  And where were the elections to decide whether those regions wanted to leave Ukraine?  Sorry but it will take a lot to convince me that those people wanted to voluntarily leave a Democratic state and fall into the arms of a gangster like Putin..who has waged war on Democracy since he gained power. And even if they did.. were they a majority?  Maybe look to the seemingly intractable issues of Northern Ireland for a comparable situation.

 

2 hours ago, Brew said:

Jolly Johnson thinks we will punish Russia with sanctions - not a hope in hell.  The west has been imposing sanctions since at least 2014, it didn't stop them invading Crimea.

 

Sanctions do have an effect of that there is no denying, even to the point they may  be counter-productive and a factor in the decision to invade! The largest country in the world and only eleventh in the GDP ranking? (UK is fifth), if you whip a dog long enough it will eventually turn and bite.

 

Broadly agree with that, but nobody has been 'whipping' Russia. Its wounds are entirely self inflicted.  They have huge natural resources which could make them a very prosperous nation if not dominated by Gangsters.  The Western/NATO Threat is entirely in Putin's paranoid mind.

 

2 hours ago, Brew said:

Russia, in many peoples opinion, is staking a claim to their place on the world stage by expanding their sphere of influence.

To that end Russia, like China, has invested huge amounts in Africa, whether that makes Russia and China partners or rivals time will tell, but I'd guess they are keeping a wary eye on each other.

 

They do not seek a 'sphere of influence', they seek to subjugate peoples, although I'm sure they'll also be extremely pleased to get their hands on Ukraine's vast mineral wealth and other natural resources.

I'm sure you know the difference and can recognise the qualitative difference between Russian authoritarian repressive dominance, and the Democracy with voluntary NATO membership which exists in the West. Russia will gain a genuine 'sphere of influence',by persuasion and example... not by force.

Also..as far as I know..NATO has never invaded so much as an inch of Russian Territory, or of Soviet Territory before that. The 'threat' from NATO exists entirely in the paranoia of Putin and his acolytes. All incursions into sovereign European states since WW2 have been by Russia/Soviet Union

 

I agree that for too long, and it has to be said for too long under Tory rule, we have failed to support developing nations and allowed China and Russia to simply walk in with their money. That is entirely the fault of the West.

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2 hours ago, DJ360 said:

Whoaahh!! Hang on Jim.. some massive assumptions there. Where do you get the idea that the 'Pro-Russian Separatists' are a genuine breakaway, as opposed to a fake insurgency propagated, encouraged and armed by Putin?

 

Does it matter? The rebels. separatists, call them what you will, are being denied the right to determine their future, not by negotiation or democratic process but by use of force. I can't remember a referendum or elections being allowed.

Many in the Donbas area never wanted an independent Ukraine, they are ethnic Russians and still hanker after the Russian way of life and culture.

Yes Russia is encouraging dissent, yes they are sending arms but the disagreement started long before Russia became directly involved.

 

The war by proxy between US and Russia that kept the pot stirring in the Balkans has now spilled over and the reality is Russia has little to fear.

Since the US were humiliated by the Taliban, Russia is now flexing its muscles knowing Biden has neither the will nor the support for intervention.

 

2 hours ago, DJ360 said:

Broadly agree with that, but nobody has been 'whipping' Russia.

 

Yes we have, or rather America has. There is no doubt in my mind the US has, and still is, working to further their own interests and against Russia's. I agree the change from a command economy to semi-capitalism was bungled, but with little knowledge or experience plus a whole tranche of sanctions, driven by American demands, it's not really surprising things have not gone well for them. When it comes to economics, America is no ones friend, nor are they the good guys they would have us believe.

 

2 hours ago, DJ360 said:

Russia will gain a genuine 'sphere of influence',by persuasion and example... not by force.

 

I wish that that were true, but sadly it's not. We are all taught violence solves nothing and the intelligent way forward is a solution gained by negotiation – claptrap!

It's the mantra of those who have never stared down the barrel of a gun. In the world of global politics, violence, war, or an unstoppable force will always win. Virtually every nation state on earth came about by  the use of force.

Russia will probably dominate Europe one way or another. Subjugation? If that's what it takes, that's what they will use, just like China.

 

 

The Russian opposition leader claims Putin is emulating Thatcher and drawing attention away from domestic unrest. I don't know if that's true, but they have thrown him in jail just in case.

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I believe the US is still 'smarting' from the military intervention in Vietnam and further debacles in the Middle East conflicts.

We, in the UK, with current affairs in the Ukraine, are reminded of the Suez crisis and from the wrath of adverse crisism from the US for our devious and underhanded action with France and Israel to defeat Nasser of the nationalisation of the Suez Canal zone. A similarity to a land grab.

 

We 'allow' our airspace to be aggressively probed by the Russian 'Bears'; allow Russian murder operatives to freely enter the UK with little more than a verbal condemnation; our cyber security and border controls are unfit for purpose and we harbour a weak corrupt government who, for too long, have been greedily relying on the financial gains from an openly hostile communist regimes. 

 

Little 'feeble' Britain is a worthy description of our national and inter-national standing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Alpha I think we have been bought , though many of us had no idea we were for sale.

 

Ben I think there are pitifully few shopkeepers left and those we have seem happy to sell us cheap stuff from other countries. They have right royally been messed with and done nowt about it.

 

I suspect that this is like all the playgrounds that I grew up in and made my way in life.  The code was "Might is Right" the bigger you were and the stronger the gang you grew  or belonged to the more successful you were in achieving your ends. Any weakness or uncertainty and you were lost!!

 

 

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Of course banning them from Eurovision is a game changer. Seriously as much as I abhor what is happening, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. I think if they had invaded a member country the reaction might be different.

Mrs B

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Lengthy article here, but  an informative read.

 

https://prospect.org/world/worse-than-a-crime-its-a-blunder-russia-ukraine-lieven-interview/

 

19 hours ago, Brew said:

Does it matter? The rebels. separatists, call them what you will, are being denied the right to determine their future, not by negotiation or democratic process but by use of force. I can't remember a referendum or elections being allowed.

Many in the Donbas area never wanted an independent Ukraine, they are ethnic Russians and still hanker after the Russian way of life and culture.

Yes Russia is encouraging dissent, yes they are sending arms but the disagreement started long before Russia became directly involved.

 

What would be the UK Govt. reaction if the Scots (  or more likely a  proportion of Scots.) started an armed insurrection in support of Scottish Independence?   I see the Donbas lot as just mischief making encouraged by Russia.  If they like Russia so much why did they not just go there?  There's no shortage of space.

 

Meanwhile millions of Ethnic Russians and Ethnic Ukrainians have been co-existing, inter-marrying, working either side of the border etc.. for decades, so that Putin's claims are  completely ludicrous.

 

19 hours ago, Brew said:

Yes we have, or rather America has. There is no doubt in my mind the US has, and still is, working to further their own interests and against Russia's. I agree the change from a command economy to semi-capitalism was bungled, but with little knowledge or experience plus a whole tranche of sanctions, driven by American demands, it's not really surprising things have not gone well for them. When it comes to economics, America is no ones friend, nor are they the good guys they would have us believe.

 

If Putin is as popular, patriotic and competent as he likes to think..why has he presided over a far worse Kleptocracy than the one we are living through here? Having done a bit more reading, I'm prepared to concede that the instability in Eastern Ukraine is the result of a complex series of 'strategic mistakes', on all sides.. but Putin's 'resolution' is sure insanity.

 

Still, I'm picking up on hints of possible hope...

 

First, Putin's supposedly 'wily' and experienced Foreign Minister looked decidedly unconvinced earlier as he parroted Putin's lunatic justifications for his actions.

 

Second, some observers seem to be concluding that Russian forces are having a much harder time of it than they were no doubt led to believe.. and in any  case I suppose many will have the same doubts as their civilian counterparts back home.

 

Third, some evidence that  Russian troops are somewhat bemused to find that instead of the strutting Nazis they were told had taken over the country..they are meeting ordinary citizens, who are seriously pissed off at them and will not be bullied, and I'm not just talking about Ukrainian armed forces.

 

I'm almost reminded of the scenes in 'Zhivago'..when bedraggled Russian soldiers, making their way back from the front in 1917..from a fight in which they have no interest..turn on their pompous officers.

 

Elsewhere another commentator has calculated that there is no way Russia could sustain an occupation of Ukraine, with the troops it has available, and against determined Guerrilla action , non cooperation and insurrection.

 

And finally I was shocked to discover that Russia has a population of just over 140 million and falling, which, for the largest country by area in the World is pathetic...and that Russia is 11th wealthiest by GDP, c.f. UK at 5th, with half that population and a fraction of the area.

All that space and a chronically overpopulated China next door.... Makes you think....

 

Given their oil and gas reserves alone, they could be a wealthy country with people clamouring to move there..except of course that Putin is a crook and  has spent 20+ years ruining the country, with no regard for the people, and crucially a wilful inability to move on from undemocratic, repressive authoritarian rule..

 

I  really do think there is a distinct possibility that Putin has 'shot his bolt', and may well find himself ousted. I certainly hope so.

From Wiki:

GDP (US$ million) by country
Country/Territory Region IMF[1] United Nations[12] World Bank[13][14]
Estimate Year Estimate Year Estimate Year
23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png United States Americas 22,939,580 2021 20,893,746 2020 20,936,600 2020
23px-Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_ China Asia 16,862,979 [n 2]2021 14,722,801 [n 3]2020 14,722,731 2020
23px-Flag_of_Japan.svg.png Japan Asia 5,103,110 2021 5,057,759 2020 4,975,415 2020
23px-Flag_of_Germany.svg.png Germany Europe 4,230,172 2021 3,846,414 2020 3,806,060 2020
23px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png United Kingdom Europe 3,108,416 2021 2,764,198 2020 2,707,744 2020
23px-Flag_of_India.svg.png India Asia 2,946,061 2021 2,664,749 2020 2,622,984 2020
23px-Flag_of_France.svg.png France Europe 2,940,428 2021 2,630,318 2020 2,603,004 2020
23px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png Italy Europe 2,120,232 2021 1,888,709 2020 1,886,445 2020
23px-Flag_of_Canada_%28Pantone%29.svg.pn Canada Americas 2,015,983 2021 1,644,037 2020 1,643,408 2020
23px-Flag_of_South_Korea.svg.png South Korea Asia 1,823,852 2021 1,637,896 2020 1,630,525 2020
23px-Flag_of_Russia.svg.png Russia Europe 1,647,568 2021 1,483,498 2020 1,483,498 2020

 

Interesing stuff.....

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